Israel-Iran conflict: Last week’s Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear capability and military installations and Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks mark a critical escalation of the longstanding conflict between the two countries. While both secretive proxy wars and clandestine operations have characterized much of their competition over the past several years, this public military attack marks a stark turnaround in the character of their confrontation. The attack also poses urgent questions regarding the motivation for Israel’s actions, the Iranian response, and wider ramifications for regional and global stability.
To delve into these problems, RAND analysis offers insights into this emerging crisis’s strategic, diplomatic, and economic aspects. From the potential for further escalation to the implications for U.S. foreign policy and international energy markets, their analysis illuminates the issues of this critical juncture in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Israel’s Operation Rising Lion represents the most important culmination so far of Israel’s military confrontation with Iran and its non-state allies that commenced following the 7 October 2023 attacks. Israel has severed Iran’s military leadership, targeted several nuclear facilities, and focused on Iran’s defensive and offensive capacities through aerial attacks and special operations. Iran has retaliated with volleys of ballistic missiles and uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs). In the current conflict between Israel, an undeclared nuclear power, and Iran, a nuclear threshold state, the future of the region hangs in the balance.
How Israel gained air control over Tehran: Israel-Iran conflict
Two days following the initiation of the June 13 operation against Iran, the Israeli army gained control of the air corridor that links Israel with Tehran. This control is the pinnacle of a long struggle against Iran and its proxies, which have come to be referred to as the “axis of resistance”: Hezbollah, the Syrian regime, and Iraqi militias. Following years of indirect battles, Israel seized an opportunistic moment to strike directly by increasing the pressure in successive stages.
The first turning point was in April 2024. On April 1, Israel blew up an Iranian consular facility in Damascus, killing some officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The initial direct clash between the two regional heavyweights came next: On April 13, Iran struck Israel’s territory for the first time, specifically the Nevatim Air Base in the Negev desert, with an onslaught of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. The advanced-threatened attack inflicted minimal damage. On April 19, the Israeli military answered in a cautious but firm way: Its air force bombed a Russian-built S-300 anti-aircraft battery, which had been charged with defending nuclear sites at Isfahan and Natanz.”This was a strategic warning strike to emphasise Israel’s capability to strike at any target based in Iran
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